A now-deleted listing on XUruguay, a video game retailer, has reignited speculation about Grand Theft Auto 6’s (GTA 6) release date, suggesting a September 17, 2025, launch for a PS5 disc version.
While Rockstar Games and Take-Two Interactive remain silent, the leak aligns with Take-Two’s confirmed Fall 2025 window—but inconsistencies and historical precedent warrant scrutiny.
Fact-Checking the Leak: Reliability of XUruguay
The Uruguayan store’s claim of a PS5-exclusive disc version (contradicting prior confirmations of Xbox Series S/X compatibility) raises red flags.
Notably, XUruguay lacks a track record of credible leaks, unlike retailers like Amazon France, which accidentally revealed Elden Ring’s release date in 2021.
Stakeholder Perspectives:
- Industry analyst Daniel Ahmad (Niko Partners) notes: “Smaller retailers often guess dates to drive traffic. Without corroboration from regional PlayStation branches, this is speculative.”
- Rockstar’s infamous lockdown on leaks (e.g., the 2022 GTA 6 breach) makes accidental reveals unlikely.
Unanswered Questions:
- Why would Rockstar prioritize a PS5 disc version when digital sales dominate? (Physical sales accounted for just 18% of U.S. game revenue in 2023, per ESA data.)
- Could this be a regional exclusivity deal, similar to Final Fantasy XVI’s timed PS5 launch?
Fall 2025 Confidence
Take-Two CEO Strauss Zelnick’s insistence on meeting the Fall 2025 window (CNBC interview, May 2024) contrasts with widespread delays in AAA games. For context, 72% of games delayed in 2023 cited “polish” as the reason (DFC Intelligence).
Historical Precedent:
- GTA 5 was delayed twice (2012 ➔ 2013), and Red Dead Redemption 2 slipped from Fall 2017 to 2018.
- Take-Two’s fiscal year ends in March 2026, incentivizing a Q1 2026 release for revenue reporting—yet Zelnick’s Fall 2025 target suggests confidence in avoiding slippage.
September 17 Nostalgia: Marketing Genius or Coincidence?
A September 17 release would coincide with GTA 5’s 12th anniversary—a symbolic gesture for a franchise that’s generated $7.7 billion in lifetime revenue (Take-Two FY2023 report).
Rockstar has rarely prioritized anniversary releases; Red Dead Redemption 2 launched in October 2018, missing its 2010 predecessor’s May anniversary.
Pricing Speculation: Testing the $100 Ceiling
Analysts debate whether Take-Two will break the $70 standard for AAA games. While Matthew Ball’s 2025 report suggests a $100 price tag, this faces hurdles:
- Consumer Backlash: Ubisoft’s attempt to price Skull and Bones at $70 was widely criticized for its perceived value.
- Regional Pricing: A $100 tag could alienate markets like India, where the Xbox Series S retails for ₹34,990 (~$420).
Take-Two may instead bundle GTA Online currency or story DLC to justify premium editions, a tactic used for GTA 5’s Enhanced Edition.
PS5 Exclusivity Claim: Miscommunication or Misdirection?
XUruguay’s assertion of PS5 exclusivity conflicts with Rockstar’s multiplatform history. Possible explanations:
- Regional Distribution Error: The store may have listed only PS5 stock due to logistics.
- Marketing Partnership: Sony could secure timed exclusivity for trailers or DLC, as with Call of Duty’s PlayStation perks.
Notably, Microsoft’s Activision Blizzard acquisition ensures Xbox parity for major franchises, reducing the likelihood of full exclusivity.
Financial Implications: The $1 Billion Pre-Order Myth
DFC Intelligence’s $1 billion pre-order projection hinges on GTA 6 selling ~14.3 million units at $70—a plausible feat given GTA 5 sold 11.2 million copies in 24 hours.
This ignores macroeconomic risks like inflation-driven disposable income drops in key markets (e.g., Brazil, Turkey).
The February 2025 Earnings Call
Take-Two’s February 6, 2025, earnings call could clarify timelines, but Rockstar’s marketing playbook favors abrupt announcements. For example, GTA 5’s first trailer dropped just 7 months pre-launch. Investors should temper expectations for concrete details.
Hope vs. Hype
While the XUruguay leak fuels excitement, Rockstar’s silence and the gaming industry’s volatility demand skepticism.
As games journalist Jason Schreier tweeted: “If I had a rupee for every ‘leaked’ GTA 6 release date, I’d fund the game myself.” Until Take-Two breaks silence, the September 2025 date remains a compelling—but unverified—narrative.
